The UBC Rapid Transit Alternative Evaluation Report includes graphics that plot the model forecasted demand by 2041 of most options with their respective capacities. First let's take a look at the plot associated with a full UBC SkyTrain extension:
The diagram above shows the demand and capacity of a full Rail Rapid Transit (SkyTrain) Line from Lafarge Lake-Douglas to UBC during morning peak hours in 2041. It pays to mention that by 2041, the Millennium Line will be close to saturation between Lougheed and Cambie while running 5-car trains, although the section west of Arbutus only uses up 27% (~3509/13000) of that capacity. This means that the UBC section will be quite substantially under-utilized, particularly considering that this is supposed to be the peak direction of that section of the line in the morning.
The next diagram is the same type of capacity / demand plot, but for a combo BRT + RRT option, which resembles closely with what's being adopted for the next decade (except the BRT is some sort of B-Line improvement and it doesn't run east of Arbutus, directly above the SkyTrain):
Now, this diagram shows the demand the BRT heading east from UBC to Commercial in the morning peak, again in 2041 (21 years from now). Ignoring the right tail where the BRT runs a useless service directly duplicating the SkyTrain east of Arbutus, this BRT line is just slightly above capacity at Blenheim / Macdonald, and the demand is potentially contributed by future development at UBC, Musqueam and Jericho lands. We have plenty of time to build a better solution (than BRT) between UBC and Arbutus before this section fully saturates. Alternative corridors such as 4th and 16th can also be used to alleviate the demand.
Central Broadway and UBC are connected by the busiest bus route in North America, but their transportation issues are different should be treated somewhat separately because of the distinct ridership and geometric characteristics. Central Broadway has high demand all-day and all-year long, and it actually could use a subway today. An extension of the Millennium Line draws the most ridership and causes the least disruption to traffic (especially to north-south traffic towards Downtown). The trade-off between reliability and capacity is much smaller for a RRT than for a LRT. On the other hand, UBC needs an overall upgrade of all bus routes and improved transit priority that makes the 99 B-Line a real BRT. This will help maximize peak hour capacity with the amount of funding and resources available. It may also benefit more people by providing better transit services to a broader area and allowing people to make more direct rides (w/o having to transfer from/to the #99). Those who use the new M-Line extension (then the new B-Line) to UBC will be less likely to be passed up at Commercial, since they are no longer competing for space on a cramped bus with those heading on Broadway. They will also enjoy a faster and more reliable trip without having to sit through traffic at the busiest section of Broadway, between Main Street and Granville Street.
Ultimately, the reason why the rapid transit, whether RRT or LRT, can't be built all the way to UBC in one phase is because of financial constraints, which will unfortunately always exist for transportation projects in the region. At a time when funding for a new Patullo Bridge is still uncertain, and funding for constructing the Arbutus extension has yet to be fully secured, and all cities in the rest of the region are yearning for more transit services (especially more B-Lines and rapid transit), there is little room to find another $1.5 billion to build the Millennium Line out to UBC when the demand for rail rapid transit cannot be guaranteed in the next decade or more. We need and can certainly find more innovative and cost-effective interim solutions to help with commuters to/from UBC. Remember from ECON 101 that resources are scarce - and thus is money.
EDIT: To add on, if we truly want to have sufficient ridership for a rapid transit line through Point Grey and Kitsilano, the City of Vancouver would need to push for higher density and more development while anticipating backslash from NIMBYs in the area. Without a good land use plan for the area, pushing for an expensive rapid transit project would be very difficult. However, any attempts to densify or develop the west side are going to be face significant political obstacles. At the end, density is king in public transport, and votes are what majority of politicians care about the most.
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| Phase 2 Evaluation Summary |
Sources:
- The 10-Year Vision for Metro Vancouver Transportation [link]
- UBC Line Rapid Transit Study Phase 2 Alternatives Evaluation Report (400 pages) [link]
- UBC Line Rapid Transit Study Phase 2 Alternatives Evaluation Summary (13 pages) [link]
- Millnnium Line Broadway Extension Project Page [link]
